On March 19, 2024, INCIPE held the virtual event entitled Russia: the Contradictions of a Country at War, with the participation of Xavier Colás, correspondent for El Mundo in Moscow. The event was introduced by the Ambassador of Spain and Secretary General of INCIPE, Manuel Alabart. Following the speaker’s presentation, a question-and-answer session was moderated by Vicente Garrido, Director General of INCIPE.

Xavier Colás began his presentation by analyzing the recent election results in Russia and their implications, highlighting the victory of current President Vladimir Putin. He also explained Russia’s evolution since the year 2000, pointing out the serious economic, social, and geographic challenges the country faced at that time.

During his speech, Colás delved into how Putin has consolidated his power over the years, focusing on the weakening of the opposition, which has declined in strength since the beginning of the decade. However, Colás also pointed out potential weaknesses in the current Government, which appear to be growing, and mentioned a “metaphorical pact” between Russian citizens and Putin, in which the former relinquish power in exchange for political stability. Nevertheless, this pact seems to be in decline, with an increase in dissenting voices and citizen concern in Russia.

Xavier Colás also addressed Western failures in accurately predicting Putin’s actions, evidenced by the frozen conflict in Ukraine. He suggested that Russia may attempt to resolve this conflict within the year, either by advancing towards Kiev or by blocking access to territories near the Black Sea.

During the post-presentation discussion with Xavier Colás, participants posed questions regarding the role and future of the Russian opposition and the stance of European countries towards Russia. Other topics discussed included potential successors to Putin and the current state of the war in Ukraine.