The future of the European Union: reform and enlargement

On 18 January 2024, INCIPE held the virtual event entitled The future of the European Union: reform and enlargement, with the participation of Javier Elorza, Ambassador Permanent Representative of Spain to the EU (1996-2000), Ambassador of Spain to France (2000-2004), Ambassador of Spain to Russia (2004-2007), and Ambassador of Spain to Italy (2012-2016), among other positions. The meeting was presented by the ambassador and secretary general of INCIPE, Manuel Alabart. After the presentation, there was a round of questions moderated by Vicente Garrido, Director of INCIPE.

Javier Elorza began his intervention by situating Brexit as the beginning of the situation that the European Union is currently experiencing. As a result, an existential situation arose in Brussels, which materialised months later in the publication of the White paper on the future of Europe presented by the European Commission in 2017, in which the different options for the development of the Union were studied.

Later, in 2022, more than half of the member states rejected the possibility of revising the treaties; and, in September 2023, France and Germany published a document with two central ideas: the need for enlargement of the Union for geostrategic reasons, and the proposal to carry out prior financial and institutional reforms, something which, according to Elorza, he does not believe will have the support of the other member states.

Elorza goes on to stress that enlargement requires financing, since, as the Copenhagen criteria, or accession criteria, dictate, the European Union must have absorption capacity, which implies an increase in expenditure, and which would rise from 446 million to 512 million.

In previous enlargements, Elorza explains, the European Council has always agreed on the means to finance them, and, he believes, the same should be done on this occasion, assessing the costs according to the integration agreements and the transitional periods that are agreed, and, once the cost has been calculated, it should be shared out fairly and equitably.

Elorza points out that negotiations for the accession of Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina began during the Spanish Presidency of the Council of the European Union. These negotiations are expected to drag on for a long period of time, as, nowadays, none of the candidates meet the necessary requirements for accession. The Belgian Presidency of the Council of the European Union has as its mandate the challenge of drawing up a list of possible internal reforms and analysing current policies with a view to enlargement, in a situation in which it is difficult for it to receive the support of all the Member States, Elorza concluded.

In the last section of the session, a debate took place, in which the participants asked questions on issues such as the assessment of Spain’s period in the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union, with its lights and shadows, and on the possibility of confronting countries that do not respect the Rule of Law within the Union. The possibility of Spain’s access to cohesion funds, the European policy of reindustrialisation in strategic sectors, and Brussels’ ambitions regarding the Green Deal were also discussed.

In addition, the position of public opinion in the different European countries in relation to the accession of Ukraine and Turkey, the effects of Brexit on the Union, and the viability of creating a European army were also discussed. Finally, there was a debate on the challenge of adopting an effective migration policy at European level.

Elena Ferro

INCIPE