The Israeli-Palestinian Drama
On 27 October 2023, INCIPE held the virtual event entitled The Israeli-Palestinian Drama, with Jorge Dezcallar, Spanish ambassador to the United States (2008-2012), director of the National Intelligence Centre, CNI, (2001-2004), and director general for Africa and the Middle East (1985-1993), among others. The meeting was presented by the ambassador and Secretary General of INCIPE, Manuel Alabart. The presentation was followed by a round of questions moderated by Vicente Garrido, Director General of INCIPE.
Jorge Dezcallar began his speech by analysing the context of the attack perpetrated by Hamas on 7 October and trying to identify the Israeli defence failure. He asserted that there had been several serious intelligence failures, and that it is practically impossible that the exhaustive preparation that Hamas had to carry out could have gone unnoticed by Israeli intelligence services. He assures that there will be an investigation and that responsibility will have to be taken for this series of failures, and above all for the overconfidence shown by the intelligence services.
He notes that Israeli society is polarised, with a prime minister accused of corruption and an army more concerned with defending settlers in the West Bank than paying attention to the danger coming from Gaza. Regarding the source of the problem, Dezcallar points out that the unconditional support from the US, which Israel has always counted on, has allowed it to ignore UN resolutions. Moreover, he attributes the outbreak of violence that has occurred to the fact that Palestinians felt that their cause was being forgotten. He therefore lists four objectives for which Hamas might have carried out its attack: to try to make the world not forget the Palestinian problem, to assume Palestinian leadership, to prevent rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and to secure the release of prisoners from Israeli jails in exchange for hostages.
Israel’s reaction has been to unite and declare war to wipe out Hamas and regain the confidence of the population. Dezcallar thinks this war will be won by Israel, due to the huge differences in strength, but that it will result in a humanitarian disaster. Regarding the international reaction, he notes that for Russia this situation shows the failure of US policy in the Middle East, and China considers Israel’s response to be beyond self-defence and unacceptable collective punishment. For the Global South, this shows the hypocrisy of the West, which condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but not the years of Israeli occupation in Palestine.
Dezcallar highlights four short-term dangers: confusing the Palestinians with Hamas, the risk of terrorism that may reach Europe, the humanitarian disaster that this situation will bring, and the extension of the conflict. At the same time, he points to four situations that in his opinion will trigger this conflict: Hamas will not continue to govern in Gaza, it will be difficult for Netanyahu to survive politically what is happening, this situation will harm Ukraine, and finally, Israel’s reaction will favour Hamas, helping it to gain more support from the Palestinian population.
Finally, Dezcallar lists three major problems for the future, in the short, medium and long term. Firstly, he stresses that it is imperative to take humanitarian pauses and resolve the hostage problem. Secondly, we are facing a military operation that is going to be very difficult and that Israel is going to have to carry it out while avoiding a humanitarian disaster, a worsening of its international reputation, and the extension of the conflict. Finally, in the long term, Dezcallar recalls that Israel will have to face the enormous problem of what to do with Gaza, where there are two million inhabitants who have nowhere to go.
In the last block of the session a debate took place, in which participants raised questions on issues such as the two-state solution and the possibility of a confederation. The Israeli strategy and Iran’s possible reaction were also discussed. In addition, the validity of international humanitarian law and the double standards of the West were discussed. Finally, there was a debate on the impact that this situation will have on the development of the war in Ukraine, and on the different options for international mediation to put an end to the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Elena Ferro
INCIPE
