Geopolitics of the Ukrainian War: view from the Middle East

On 4 July 2023, INCIPE held the virtual event entitled Geopolitics of the Ukrainian War: view from the Middle East, with the participation of Shlomo Ben Ami, Vice President of the Toledo International Centre for Peace (CITpax), former Ambassador of Israel to Spain and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel. The meeting was presented by the Director General of CITpax, Emilio Cassinello. The presentation was followed by a round of questions moderated by Vicente Garrido, Director General of INCIPE.

Shlomo Ben Ami began his speech by explaining the current geostrategic scenario in the Middle East, and how the region is getting used to acting as if the United States has left the area, because the US is reviewing its strategic priorities and focusing on Ukraine and China.

There is a sense now that the main powers in the region oscillate between the US and other powers, notes Shlomo Ben Ami, which is reflected in the fact that these countries did not participate in the sanctions against Russia. All this is influenced by the change in oil geo-strategy, as the US no longer needs to obtain oil from the Middle East, since it is now the world’s largest oil producer. For this reason, Ben Ami explains, Iran is re-emerging on the political scene in the region, as are the other countries, leaving Israel as the only one that is failing to develop regional diplomacy.

He further argues that Israel is currently facing a chaos of misrule in the West Bank, and Iran has become a legitimate state in the region, which puts Israel in a complicated situation, as it is facing a conflict on several fronts at the same time. In addition to the conflict in the West Bank and Gaza, an Iranian-initiated direct confrontation with Hezbollah would be a devastating scenario.

With regard to the Ukrainian War, Ben Ami points out that thanks to the advanced anti-missile technology that Israel possesses, the war means prosperity for the Israeli military industry, due to the recent rearmament taking place in Europe. Moreover, he notes, the Russians have lost interest in Syria and it has become an Iranian fiefdom, as Russia’s efforts are focused on Ukraine.

Regarding the future of the Ukrainian war, he points out that it could lead to a stalemate and guerrilla war in the occupied Ukrainian territory. He also points out that it is unrealistic to think that Ukraine will be able to regain all of its occupied territory, including Crimea. He also mentions that a change of government in Russia is not very likely, as Putin is protected by military and political elites, but even if the country were to fall, the dismemberment of Russia could be very dangerous, as it would mean the loss of control over nuclear weapons in the country with the largest number of nuclear warheads in the world.

Elena Ferro

INCIPE