Sudan, between hope and conflict
On 26 June 2023, INCIPE held the virtual event entitled Sudan, between hope and conflict, with the participation of Alberto Ucelay, Spanish Ambassador to Sudan between 2018 and 2021, and Director General for the Maghreb, Mediterranean and Middle East at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation. The meeting was presented by the Ambassador and Secretary General of INCIPE, Manuel Alabart. The presentation was followed by a round of questions moderated by Vicente Garrido, Director General of INCIPE.
Alberto Ucelay began by explaining the current situation in Sudan, highlighting that it has been a host country for refugees since even before the outbreak of this recent crisis, and underlining its strategic importance due to its position between the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Secondly, he pointed out the two coordinates on which his presentation would be based: hope and conflict.
Regarding hope, he recalled that this latest attempt to bring democracy, freedom and progress to the country, which began in 2019, was preceded by three other attempts that were thwarted by military coups in 1956, 1964 and 1985. Ucelay argued that Sudan does not have to be doomed to failure for the fourth time, and that the international community must assist in the consolidation of democracy in the country. He went on to highlight the three phases of the current conflict, which in 2019 began with a revolution ignited by a series of demonstrations, and which led army leader General Burhan and Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces, to overthrow Omar al-Bashir, Sudan’s dictator for thirty years. This revolution culminated in a political agreement in July 2019, brokered by the European Union, Ethiopia and the United Nations. This agreement was joined by another peace process in August 2020, which sought to bring closure to the decades-long local conflicts in the country. And it is at this point, Ucelay explains, that the 2019 agreement is altered and problems begin to arise in finding a democratic path, and in moving from the revolution to the institutional chapter.
This is where the conflict comes into play. This confrontation is between two poles: the military figure, General Burhan, head of the armed forces, and Hemedti, leader of the paramilitary forces. It is a conflict between centre and periphery, between those who have always held power and the others, Ucelay stresses. He explains a series of mistakes that followed, such as the lack of a framework for political parties and the lack of a far-reaching DDR programme for Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration. He also points to the tasks that remain to be done in the country, which are economic reform, education reform and media reform.
Finally, Ucelay points to the lessons learned, which focus on the need to respect the fundamental agreements reached at the beginning of the transition period, and not change them to suit the circumstances; to ensure civil and political liberties, criminal and procedural guarantees; and the need for the IMF and the World Bank to have instruments ready for African transitions in this area, as well as real involvement by the African Union and the Arab League.
Regarding future steps, he points to the importance of US and Saudi mediation in a ceasefire, of seeking a political agreement, and of not forgetting that this process must have Sudanese pillars, but with the support of the international community.
At the end of the session, a discussion took place, in which participants raised questions on issues such as the potential destabilisation of the region by this conflict, in which mediation and good management of the refugee crisis must play a key role. The possible independence of Darfur and the Janjaweed militia were discussed, noting the importance of avoiding polarisation and integrating all regions of the country. The role of Spain was also discussed, as well as how to prevent a conflict that is still military-paramilitary from becoming civilian. Finally, it was mentioned how the destabilisation caused by the presence of militias such as the Wagner Group should be rejected and avoided.
Elena Ferro
INCIPE
