The Syrian conflict: the likely roadmap towards a required solution

Bajo el título “The Syrian conflict: the likely roadmap towards a required solution”, INCIPE organizó el 6 de junio un desayuno de trabajo. El conferenciante invitado, Joseph Bahout, consultor y miembro del Centro de Análisis, Previsión y Estrategia (CAPS) del Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores francés, abogó por una intervención de occidente más decidida en el conflicto sirio. Para Joseph Bahout, no se trata de un fenómeno nuevo: las potencias regionales e internacionales están moviendo sus fichas en Siria. Para Rusia, más allá del estratégico puerto de Tartus en el Mediterráneo, el país es un nuevo trampolín para ganar presencia en la escena internacional. La lectura que Moscú hace del conflicto es la de una guerra civil entre dos partes de la sociedad siria. Bajo este prisma, la solución política, a negociar en Ginebra II debe, por tanto, incluir a todos los actores implicados, regionales e internacionales.

In regards to the United States and the West in general, Syria started a revolution in 2011, but has evolved over the past two years and intends to produce a political transformation, Bahout said.

All of this must add to the role of stakeholders in the Middle East like Iran, for whom Syria’s future is inextricably linked, or like of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, who were traditionally faced with the Persian power and have the financial potencial to be decisive in the tipping of scales in favor of the rebels.

As the war continues to decimate the country (100,000 deaths and 5 million displaced inside and outside the country), the upcoming Geneva Conference is viewed with skepticism. Assad’s role and the future of the Alawite community in the future transitional government are currently in question. The risk of “entrenchment,” commented Joseph Bahout, of the conversations about the image of what happens between Israel and the Palestinians, is latent.

So, the most likely scenarios of conflict in Syria, which began in 2011, are unflattering. The risk of implosion of the whole region now seems closer than ever, with the real possibility, although not immediate, of a fragmentation of the Syrian territory, was defined by their own internal dynamics of war.

Following Bahout’s presentation, an interesting discussion involving experts from different fields took place. In this conversation, diverse issues were addressed like the possibility of greater involvement in Syria by European countries, the role of Islamists, and the possible entry of the Hezbollah guerrillas onto the list of terrorist organizations in the EU.

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